现代交通与冶金材料

随着高速公路车流量持续增长和出行需求结构的多样化，传统的扩容决策方法已难以满足精细化管理的需要。本文基于高速公路建设背景，提出一套扩容需求的分级分类分析框架。从交通流量、车速、密度及高峰小时特征等核心指标入手，利用主成分分析（PCA）方法提取代表路段扩容压力的关键因子，避免多指标间的共线性干扰；采用 K⁃Means 聚类对不同路段进行横向分类，将高速公路划分为通行能力导向型、流量不均匀型及无需扩容型三类，以揭示不同路段在流量负荷与高峰集中性方面的差异；结合层次分析法（AHP）构建纵向分级体系，从通行能力与流量分布两大维度出发，量化计算综合得分，并根据分位法划分为低、中低、中高、高四级扩容需求等级。实证结果表明，该方法能够较好地识别出高扩容优先级路段，并对资源配置与治理策略提供科学参考。相比传统基于单一指标的扩容判断，本研究的分级分类框架能够更全面反映高速公路运行压力与潜在瓶颈特征，为高速公路的规划、扩容与运行管理提供了新的思路。

With the continuous growth of expressway traffic volume and diversified structures of travel demand， traditional decision-making methods for capacity expansion fail to meet the requirements of refined traffic management. Against the background of expressway construction， this paper proposes a hierarchical and classification analytical framework for capacity expansion demand evaluation. Starting from core traffic indicators including traffic flow， vehicle speed， traffic density and peak-hour characteristics， Principal Component Analysis （PCA） is adopted to extract key factors representing segmentlevel expansion pressure， which eliminates multicollinearity interference among multiple indicators.The K-Means clustering algorithm is further applied to conduct horizontal categorization of road segments， dividing expressway sections into three types： capacity-oriented segments， uneven-flow segments， and segments with no expansion demand. This classification reveals the disparities among road segments in terms of traffic load and peak concentration characteristics. Combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）， a vertical hierarchical grading system is constructed from two dimensions：traffic capacity and flow distribution. Comprehensive evaluation scores are quantitatively calculated，and four expansion demand grades （low， medium-low， medium-high， high） are determined via the quantile method.Empirical verification results demonstrate that the proposed framework can effectively identify road segments with high expansion priority and provide scientific support for resource allocation and traffic governance strategies. Compared with conventional expansion judgment approaches relying on single indicators， the hierarchical classification framework developed in this study can comprehensively reflect the operational pressure and potential bottleneck features of expressways， offering novel insights for expressway planning， capacity expansion and operational management.